Economic Insights
Mortgage rates tick lower as 10-year hovers near 4.5%
Thu, May 28, 2026, 6:00 AM
Average mortgage pricing is a touch better this morning. The U.S. 30-year fixed sits near 6.472%, down 4 bps from yesterday’s 6.507%. The 15-year fixed is 5.846% (-3 bps). Government programs are modestly firmer (FHA ~6.24%, VA ~6.10%, USDA ~6.15%), while 30-year jumbo is ~6.59% (-2 bps). Refi quotes remain a bit higher on average around 6.64%. As always, lender sheets vary: some markets show ~6.45% APR while others post closer to 6.625%, depending on points and borrower profile. Today’s backdrop: the 10-year Treasury is around 4.50%–4.51% in early trading, up a hair from yesterday’s close near 4.48%. That slight uptick tempers this morning’s improvement and keeps the recent “higher-for-longer” theme intact. The move from the low 4s in March to roughly 4.5% by late May reflects sticky inflation, resilient data, and a still-restrictive Fed alongside ongoing balance-sheet runoff—factors that have lifted term premiums and kept mortgage rates anchored in the mid-6s. Short-term outlook: With the 10-year parked near the 4.5% pivot, rate momentum is sideways with a mild upward risk if yields extend higher intraday. Lenders can reprice quickly on bond weakness. Borrowers closing within 15–30 days should lean toward locking on dips. Those with more time can float cautiously, but improvement likely requires the 10-year to sustain a move back below ~4.5%. Keep an eye on Treasury moves through the day, as they’ll drive any lender mid-day price changes.