Economic Insights
Mortgage rates steady-to-slightly lower as 10-year drifts to ~4.51% in holiday trade
Mon, May 25, 2026, 6:00 AM
National averages are essentially unchanged to a touch better versus the prior read. Fortune/Optimal Blue shows the 30-year conforming at 6.56% (down ~2 bps from 6.579%), while the 15-year is 5.92% (up ~9 bps). Jumbo edged up to 6.637%. FHA ticked to 6.319%, VA eased to 6.152%, and USDA is 6.198% (+4 bps). Sample ARMs are clustered around 5.875%–6.25% (APRs ~6.35%–6.47%). With U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day, most lenders will likely carry Friday’s pricing with only minor variance. Mortgage News Daily’s survey typically tracks in the mid‑6% range, consistent with these levels. The rate backdrop remains tied to Treasuries. The 10‑year is hovering near 4.51% this morning versus ~4.56% at Friday’s close and off mid‑May peaks near 4.65% as the recent bond sell‑off cooled. That modest rally helps mortgage pricing at the margin. Still, the Fed’s hold at 3.50%–3.75% alongside hawkish rhetoric (e.g., willingness to hike if inflation re-firms) keeps intermediate rates elevated and rate‑cut odds subdued. Ongoing supply/inflation concerns limit how far yields can fall without new data cooperation. Near term, a quiet Monday could give way to a more active Tuesday as bonds reopen and markets position for this week’s inflation updates and Treasury supply. If the 10‑year holds near 4.5%, lenders have room for small improvements; a reversal would erase them quickly. Borrowers within 15–30 days of closing should consider locking on any early‑week strength. Those with longer timelines can float cautiously, but respect event risk. ARMs may offer payment relief versus 30‑year fixed today—just weigh future reset exposure.