Economic Insights
Mortgage rates notch fresh highs; fastest run-up since late 2024
Wed, May 20, 2026, 6:00 AM
Mortgage rates extended higher into Tuesday’s close. MND’s daily index put the top‑tier 30‑year fixed at 6.75% (+0.07), the highest since July 2025 and roughly 0.75% above pre‑run‑up levels. Fifteen‑year fixed rose to 6.25% (+0.13), jumbo to 6.76% (+0.04), FHA to 6.25% (+0.03), and VA to 6.27% (+0.03). Fortune’s 30‑year average ticked up to 6.545% (+0.05). Bankrate’s national averages remain in the mid‑6s. Early Wednesday, lenders are likely to open near Tuesday’s worse levels, with a small risk of additional bumps unless bonds stabilize. The backdrop is a brisk move higher in longer‑term Treasury yields as markets lean toward “higher for longer” policy and sticky‑inflation risks. That repricing—along with typical term‑premium/supply dynamics—has produced the fastest mortgage‑rate spike since late 2024. In this environment, bonds have shown little appetite to rally absent a clear, softer turn in incoming data or a dovish shift in Fed expectations. Short‑term outlook: Momentum favors a choppy, elevated range. For strong borrowers, a practical 30‑year fixed purchase ballpark is about 6.5–6.8% today; 10‑/15‑year terms typically run 0.5–1.0% lower, and FHA/VA and jumbos are clustered nearby. If you’re inside 30 days of closing, a lock bias remains prudent. With 45–60+ days and tolerance for volatility, selective floating can work, but have rate alerts in place and be ready to lock on any meaningful bond rally. Note that discount points are buying less improvement than a month ago—recheck breakevens before paying up.